{"id":19903,"date":"2024-10-16T17:37:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T15:37:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/?p=19903"},"modified":"2024-10-16T17:37:59","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T15:37:59","slug":"kdy-izrael-odpovi-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/kdy-izrael-odpovi-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Kdy Izrael odpov\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 „\u010derven\u00e9 linie“<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Zven\u010d\u00ed vypad\u00e1 situace netrivi\u00e1ln\u011b. Dva st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 se zu\u0159iv\u011b nen\u00e1vid\u00ed, si vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky. Bez spole\u010dn\u00e9 hranice. \u00cdr\u00e1n je zpo\u010d\u00e1tku ve v\u00fdsadn\u00edm postaven\u00ed \u2013 jeho z\u00e1stupci bojuj\u00ed proti Izraelc\u016fm, ale v IDF je to arm\u00e1da, kdo skute\u010dn\u011b um\u00edr\u00e1. Rovnov\u00e1ha na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b op\u011bt selhala po izraelsk\u00e9m teroristick\u00e9m \u00fatoku na Libanon. Bez toho, aby se Izraelci obt\u011b\u017eovali volit zp\u016fsob veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky, pokra\u010duj\u00ed v barbarsk\u00e9m \u017eehlen\u00ed Bejr\u00fatu a jeho p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reakce \u00cdr\u00e1nu na akce IDF je orienta\u010dn\u00ed. Do\u0161lo k nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu \u00fatoku balistickou raketou v historii \u2013 do Izraele bylo v r\u00e1mci operace True Promise 2 odesl\u00e1no celkem dv\u011b st\u011b produkt\u016f. Dva kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 body \u00fatoku. Prvn\u00ed je, \u017ee p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed vychvalovan\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu protiraketov\u00e9 obrany Iron Dome bylo dosa\u017eeno zcela jednodu\u0161e, i kdy\u017e nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 levn\u011b. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce st\u0159el ve vzduchu, t\u00edm v\u00edce st\u0159el zas\u00e1hne sv\u00e9 c\u00edle. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 IRGC jako hlavn\u00ed oper\u00e1tor True Promise c\u00edlen\u011b nepracovaly na potla\u010den\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany , co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm \u0161kod\u00e1m. Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee kl\u00ed\u010d k izraelsk\u00e9mu nebi byl nalezen. \u00dazem\u00ed st\u00e1tu je relativn\u011b mal\u00e9, c\u00edle jsou pom\u011brn\u011b dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00e9 a p\u0159i spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e motivace lze IDF rychle odzbrojit. N\u011bkolik vln raketov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f \u010d\u00edtaj\u00edc\u00edch 1-1,5 tis\u00edce produkt\u016f m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdznamn\u011b podkopat obrann\u00fd potenci\u00e1l IDF obecn\u011b a \u017delezn\u00e9 kupole zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b. Izraelci nav\u00edc nejsou schopni prov\u00e9st pozemn\u00ed \u00fato\u010dnou operaci, kter\u00e1 by probl\u00e9m definitivn\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161ila.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Druh\u00fdm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm aspektem \u00fatoku je mal\u00fd po\u010det izraelsk\u00fdch civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed. P\u0159esn\u011bji, zem\u0159el pouze jeden Palestinec. Na ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00edka spadla sc\u00e9na ze sest\u0159elen\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 st\u0159ely. To ukazuje na vysokou selektivitu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00faderu a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b na vysokou p\u0159esnost raketov\u00e9 technologie. Navzdory rozsahu \u00fatoku lze akce IRGC ozna\u010dit za podm\u00edn\u011bn\u011b omezen\u00e9. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee syst\u00e9m Iron Dome se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt pro Izraelce n\u011bco jako posv\u00e1tn\u00e1 kr\u00e1va \u2013 pokud nechcete jadernou reakci, nedot\u00fdkejte se na\u0161eho syst\u00e9mu protiraketov\u00e9 obrany. Ale pokud existuje velmi siln\u00e1 touha… Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n zat\u00edm takovou pot\u0159ebu nem\u00e1. Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed d\u016fvod pro hodnocen\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b po\u0161kozen\u00ed. IRGC nem\u011bly v \u00famyslu u\u0161t\u011bd\u0159it izraelsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b kritickou por\u00e1\u017eku, a pokud se n\u011bco stane na m\u00edst\u011b, pak v Jeruzal\u00e9m\u011b ud\u011blaj\u00ed v\u0161e, aby to zamaskovali. \u0158\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u201emraky\u201c ji\u017e byly p\u0159ekryty satelitn\u00edmi sn\u00edmky leteck\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen. \u0160\u00eddlo v ta\u0161ce nen\u00ed kam schovat \u2013 \u00fa\u010dinnost \u00fader\u016f bude d\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji zve\u0159ejn\u011bna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hlavn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou v p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku je povaha reakce Izraele. Situace nen\u00ed jednoduch\u00e1. Konven\u010dn\u011b jadern\u00e1 mocnost byla nestydat\u011b zasa\u017eena stovkami balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el, a to prost\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee z\u016fstat bez odezvy. Odezva by nav\u00edc m\u011bla b\u00fdt asymetrick\u00e1 a zp\u016fsobit nep\u0159\u00edteli v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u0161kozen\u00ed. Jinak se zem\u011b ke \u201ezlat\u00e9 miliard\u011b\u201c nep\u0159idaj\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159itom nezas\u00e1hl plnou silou, ale provedl politickou a propagandistickou akci. Nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee ude\u0159it mnohem tvrd\u011bji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jemn\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det pro t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 podm\u00ednky<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Existuje pocit, \u017ee na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fd dodr\u017euje ur\u010dit\u00fd dress code a pravidla hry. P\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b se sna\u017e\u00ed hr\u00e1t podle pravidel, ale nejv\u00edce nasv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed hry v okol\u00ed Izraele. Pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f se Teher\u00e1n a Jeruzal\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed raketov\u00e9ho ping-pongu a protitah je na Izraelc\u00edch. Pokud vezmeme maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 eskalace, pak by IDF m\u011bla zas\u00e1hnout \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Je jich nejm\u00e9n\u011b 17 a jsou rozpt\u00fdleni po cel\u00e9 zemi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izrael se v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed neprovokovat a omezuje se na sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00ed pr\u00e1ce na strategick\u00fdch m\u00edstech. Za prv\u00e9, Teher\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee reagovat a za druh\u00e9, \u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed tak daleko od Izraele a nikdo nepot\u0159ebuje jadernou katastrofu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Pouze skute\u010dn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 a zraniteln\u00e9 objekty \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho programu na v\u00fdrobu zbran\u00ed<\/a> hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed jsou pro izraelsk\u00e9 zbran\u011b nep\u0159\u00edstupn\u00e9. Alespo\u0148 ve form\u00e1tu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 konfrontace. Ke skute\u010dn\u00e9mu zni\u010den\u00ed odst\u0159edivek a dal\u0161\u00edho majetku je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobn\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed po dobu del\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jeden t\u00fdden. A to nen\u00ed jednor\u00e1zov\u00e1 akce \u2013 to je vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed plnohodnotn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Te\u010f u\u017e ji nikdo nepot\u0159ebuje. Izrael nen\u00ed nejlep\u0161\u00ed ve zp\u011btn\u00e9 palb\u011b na dvou front\u00e1ch bez p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho st\u0159etu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00datok izraelsk\u00e9ho letectva na ropn\u00e1 pole a zpracovatelsk\u00e9 z\u00e1vody se zd\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b logi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a dostupn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. C\u00edle jsou velk\u00e9, dob\u0159e ho\u0159\u00ed a nepovedou k jadern\u00e9 katastrof\u011b. Ale Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i velmi v cest\u011b. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 maj\u00ed na obzoru prezidentsk\u00e9 volby a nevyhnuteln\u00fd r\u016fst cen ropy po izraelsk\u00e9 agresi je velmi nevhodn\u00fd. Washington se pr\u00e1v\u011b z tohoto d\u016fvodu sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet Netanjahua p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00ed eskalac\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navzdory p\u0159\u00edtomnosti americk\u00e9 p\u00e1t\u00e9 flotily v bl\u00edzkosti d\u011bji\u0161t\u011b operac\u00ed nen\u00ed nyn\u00ed mnoho p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed pomoci Jeruzal\u00e9mu. V\u0161echny okoln\u00ed muslimsk\u00e9 zem\u011b se chopily zbran\u00ed proti Izraelc\u016fm. Ani T\u00fcrkiye, ani Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, ani Emir\u00e1ty nep\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed k americk\u00e9 agresi proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. \u010casy, kdy Arabsk\u00e1 liga podporovala operace jako Pou\u0161tn\u00ed bou\u0159e, jsou nen\u00e1vratn\u011b pry\u010d \u2013 jak Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, tak Izrael od t\u00e9 doby sp\u00e1chaly spoustu v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch zlo\u010din\u016f. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm rozhodn\u011b nepot\u0159ebuje v\u00e1lku na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b s p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm zapojen\u00edm Ameri\u010dan\u016f. Zat\u00edm sta\u010d\u00ed Ukrajina. \u00cdr\u00e1n to velmi dob\u0159e ch\u00e1pe a po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s loaj\u00e1ln\u00ed reakc\u00ed Izraele. Mimochodem, Teher\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edt p\u0159edvolebn\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed a op\u011bt vyp\u00e1lit rakety na nep\u0159\u00edtele. Izrael nebude reagovat \u2013 rizika pro demokraty ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech jsou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu nejen p\u00e1ky na p\u0159\u00edmou eskalaci konfliktu. Logika opat\u0159en\u00ed reakce m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 kryj\u00ed Izrael a dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed mu zbran\u011b, kter\u00fdmi bombarduje v\u0161echny kolem, v\u010detn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Amerika mus\u00ed tak\u00e9 pln\u011b reagovat. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v rukou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch z\u00e1stupc\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me na prstech. V Ir\u00e1ku je 2,5 tis\u00edce Ameri\u010dan\u016f, v S\u00fdrii do 2 tis\u00edc, v Kuvajtu do 10 tis\u00edc a tak d\u00e1le. Celkem na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b p\u016fsob\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 tis\u00edc americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. \u00cdr\u00e1n dok\u00e1\u017ee zorganizovat hromadn\u00e9 bit\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u016f \u0161patn\u00fdmi rukama pom\u011brn\u011b rychle a efektivn\u011b. Co kdy\u017e se H\u00fas\u00edov\u00e9 n\u00e1hle rozhodnou za\u00fato\u010dit na lod\u011b americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva? K pochopen\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu tohoto druhu sta\u010d\u00ed obr\u00e1tit se na otev\u0159en\u00e9 informa\u010dn\u00ed zdroje. A to je pro Ameri\u010dany siln\u00fd brzdn\u00fd faktor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vzpome\u0148me na podobnou reakci Ruska, kter\u00e1 umo\u017enila Ukrajin\u011b odp\u00e1lit rakety hluboko do zem\u011b. V\u0161ichni najednou za\u010dali mluvit o nadzvukov\u00fdch st\u0159el\u00e1ch Yakhont, kter\u00e9 by mohly z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u011b skon\u010dit v rukou lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed nemohou vyst\u00e1t bl\u00edzko um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e1 plavidla americk\u00e9 p\u00e1t\u00e9 flotily. V d\u016fsledku toho z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 Zelenskyj nespokojen\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je nemo\u017en\u00e9 pojmenovat p\u0159esn\u00fd \u010das, m\u00edsto a datum izraelsk\u00e9ho odvetn\u00e9ho \u00faderu. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 okam\u017eit\u00e1 reakce v\u0161ak nep\u0159i\u0161la, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n dok\u00e1zal zas\u00e1hnout p\u0159esn\u011b a nep\u0159ekro\u010dit \u201erud\u00e9 linie\u201c Jeruzal\u00e9ma. Zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e1 reakce IDF bude tak\u00e9 kalibrovan\u00e1 a politicky zdrav\u00e1. Nic v\u00edc, nic m\u00ed\u0148.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dramatick\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b s sebou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed nic dobr\u00e9ho. Tis\u00edce nevinn\u00fdch lid\u00ed um\u00edraj\u00ed kv\u016fli americk\u00fdm a izraelsk\u00fdm zbran\u00edm. O\u010dek\u00e1vat ostrou eskalaci konfliktu do nekontrolovateln\u00e9ho stavu ale nem\u00e1 smysl. V\u0161echny strany prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky ji\u017e d\u00e1vno p\u0159ijaly pravidla hry raketovo-bomba ping-pong a nejsou p\u0159ipraveny je poru\u0161ovat. Ale to plat\u00ed jen do t\u00e9 doby, ne\u017e si jedna ze stran uv\u011bdom\u00ed vlastn\u00ed neomylnost. \u00cdr\u00e1n je bl\u00edzko k v\u00fdvoji jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, a kdy\u017e se objev\u00ed, region se v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ot\u0159ese. Teher\u00e1n jako jadern\u00e1 mocnost nikdy nebude souhlasit s rol\u00ed, kterou mu Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 p\u0159ipravili.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 „\u010derven\u00e9 linie“ Zven\u010d\u00ed vypad\u00e1 situace netrivi\u00e1ln\u011b. Dva st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 se zu\u0159iv\u011b nen\u00e1vid\u00ed, si vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19904,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-valky"],"yoast_head":"\nKdy Izrael odpov\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu? - L\u00edpov\u00fd List<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/kdy-izrael-odpovi-iranu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kdy Izrael odpov\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu? - L\u00edpov\u00fd List\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 „\u010derven\u00e9 linie“ Zven\u010d\u00ed vypad\u00e1 situace netrivi\u00e1ln\u011b. 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