{"id":27048,"date":"2026-03-03T23:46:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T21:46:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/?p=27048"},"modified":"2026-03-04T01:39:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T23:39:38","slug":"blizky-vychod-rozhodujici-bojiste-3-svetove-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/blizky-vychod-rozhodujici-bojiste-3-svetove-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod: Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b 3. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee \u201esv\u011btov\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dy\u201c nejsou nic nov\u00e9ho. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sv\u011btov\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dy jsou ji\u017e dlouho r\u00e1mcem, jeho\u017e prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm velk\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti ur\u010duj\u00ed pravidla hry. Definuj\u00ed strukturu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch politick\u00fdch vztah\u016f. Uva\u017eovat v pojmech sv\u011btov\u00fdch \u0159\u00e1d\u016f vy\u017eaduje \u00fapln\u00fd odklon \u2013 pohled na geopolitick\u00fd syst\u00e9m z v\u00fd\u0161ky 12 000 metr\u016f. V men\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku je to podobn\u00e9 tomu, jak nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zlo\u010dineck\u00e9 organizace ve m\u011bst\u011b \u2013 jako jsou mafie a pouli\u010dn\u00ed gangy \u2013 uzav\u00edraj\u00ed dohody o rozd\u011blen\u00ed sv\u00fdch aktivit a \u00fazem\u00ed mezi sebou. Nakonec se v\u0161ak tyto dohody v\u017edy rozpadnou, co\u017e vede k n\u00e1siln\u00fdm mocensk\u00fdm boj\u016fm, dokud nen\u00ed dosa\u017eeno nov\u00e9 dohody, kter\u00e1 odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se rovnov\u00e1hu sil. Podobn\u00e1 dynamika existuje i u nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed, sv\u011btov\u00fdch \u0159\u00e1d\u016f a sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00e1lek. Sv\u011btov\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dy si m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159edstavit jako epochy \u2013 odli\u0161n\u00e1 historick\u00e1 obdob\u00ed vyzna\u010den\u00e1 vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edmi se glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi mocensk\u00fdmi strukturami. Vestf\u00e1lsk\u00fd m\u00edr (1648 a\u017e 1803): Tato dohoda ukon\u010dila t\u0159icetiletou v\u00e1lku a stanovila r\u00e1mec pro evropsk\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy na v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b stolet\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee udr\u017eovala rovnov\u00e1hu sil mezi hlavn\u00edmi evropsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Zahrnovala Svatou \u0159\u00ed\u0161i \u0159\u00edmskou, \u0160pan\u011blsko, Francii, \u0160v\u00e9dsko, Nizozemskou republiku a r\u016fzn\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tento sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d p\u0159etrv\u00e1val a\u017e do napoleonsk\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, kter\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hu naru\u0161ily a vy\u017eadovaly nov\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u00edde\u0148sk\u00fd kongres (1814 a\u017e 1914): Vojensk\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka Napoleona I. vedla k tomuto sv\u011btov\u00e9mu \u0159\u00e1du, kter\u00fd upevnil Brit\u00e1nii jako dominantn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnost. V\u00edde\u0148sk\u00fd kongres polo\u017eil z\u00e1klady evropsk\u00e9 politiky a\u017e do vypuknut\u00ed 1. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v roce 1914. Versaillesk\u00e1 smlouva (1919 a\u017e 1939): V\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9 1. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky stanovili tento sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d a zavedli instituce, jako je Spole\u010dnost n\u00e1rod\u016f. Zhroutil se v\u0161ak, kdy\u017e se N\u011bmecko, It\u00e1lie a Japonsko b\u011bhem druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky pokusily o jeho svr\u017een\u00ed a zaveden\u00ed vlastn\u00edho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d veden\u00fd USA (1945 a\u017e sou\u010dasnost): V\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9 druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky vytvo\u0159ili sou\u010dasn\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, jeho\u017e v\u016fdcem jsou USA. Tento syst\u00e9m zahrnuje instituce jako Organizace spojen\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f, Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka a Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond \u2013 v\u0161echny se s\u00eddlem v USA. Tento sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d byl do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e USA m\u011bly v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiku a rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I kdy\u017e si to mnoz\u00ed neuv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1. Dovolte mi to vysv\u011btlit\u2026 Tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi sv\u011btov\u00fdmi mocnostmi, kter\u00e1 p\u0159eskupila mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d, definovala p\u0159edchoz\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. S p\u0159\u00edchodem jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v\u0161ak tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi mocnostmi dne\u0161ka \u2013 Ruskem, \u010c\u00ednou a USA \u2013 znamen\u00e1 jadern\u00fd Armageddon, kde nebudou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9 a pouze pora\u017een\u00ed. To se st\u00e1le m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t, i kdy\u017e si to nikdo nep\u0159eje, ale nen\u00ed to nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka byla tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lkou mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi sv\u011btov\u00fdmi mocnostmi, jako tomu bylo v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch. M\u00edsto toho se konflikt odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 na r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch \u2013 z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, finan\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kybernetick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, biologick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, popirateln\u00e1 sabot\u00e1\u017e a informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lka. V tomto smyslu je t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka ji\u017e v pln\u00e9m proudu, i kdy\u017e si to v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed neuv\u011bdomuje. Rusko, \u010c\u00edna a jejich spojenci se sna\u017e\u00ed zm\u011bnit sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d veden\u00fd USA, kter\u00fd existuje od konce druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. A\u010dkoli se jim nel\u00edb\u00ed dominance USA, Rusko i \u010c\u00edna v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu zast\u00e1vaj\u00ed pozici \u2013 by\u0165 pod\u0159\u00edzenou. Maj\u00ed st\u00e1l\u00e1 m\u00edsta v Rad\u011b bezpe\u010dnosti OSN a jsou \u010dleny kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch instituc\u00ed, jako je MMF, Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka a WTO. Na rozd\u00edl od N\u011bmecka a Japonska ve druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna nemaj\u00ed v \u00famyslu zcela p\u0159evr\u00e1tit sou\u010dasn\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d. Pokud by tak u\u010dinily, mohlo by to v\u00e9st k jadern\u00e9mu Armagedonu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00edsto toho se sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159esunout rovnov\u00e1hu od dominance USA k multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu sv\u011btu, kde maj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv. Konflikt se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 t\u011bsn\u011b pod prahem p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o vysoce nal\u00e9hav\u00fd boj mezi sv\u011btov\u00fdmi mocnostmi o ur\u010den\u00ed budouc\u00edho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du, stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch. Toto je t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka. Prob\u00edh\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f a rychle se rozv\u00edj\u00ed. Ve skute\u010dnosti t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka prob\u00edh\u00e1 ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e deset let. A\u010dkoli t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nem\u00e1 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed datum za\u010d\u00e1tku, dv\u011b kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti v letech 2013 a 2014 signalizovaly za\u010d\u00e1tek tohoto glob\u00e1ln\u00edho boje mezi Ruskem, \u010c\u00ednou a USA o p\u0159etvo\u0159en\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du. Prvn\u00ed byl vzestup Si \u0164in-pchinga v b\u0159eznu 2013. Rychle se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna se ji\u017e nespokoj\u00ed s t\u00edm, \u017ee je mlad\u0161\u00edm \u010dlenem syst\u00e9mu veden\u00e9ho USA. M\u00edsto toho Peking usiloval o roli odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed jeho moci \u2013 minim\u00e1ln\u011b rovnocennou USA, ne-li dominantn\u00ed sv\u011btovou silou. Druhou byl p\u0159evrat v Kyjev\u011b podporovan\u00fd USA v \u00fanoru 2014, kter\u00fd vedl k n\u00e1siln\u00e9mu svr\u017een\u00ed prorusk\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a jej\u00edmu nahrazen\u00ed proamerickou administrativou. Ukrajina je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sousedem Ruska \u2013 kulturn\u011b i strategicky. Slovansk\u00e9 n\u00e1rody, v\u010detn\u011b Ruska, sahaj\u00ed a\u017e k Kyjevsk\u00e9 Rusi, federaci kmen\u016f se st\u0159edem na dne\u0161n\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 existovala od konce 9. do za\u010d\u00e1tku 13. stolet\u00ed. Ukrajina m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 nesm\u00edrnou geopolitickou hodnotu. Ameri\u010dt\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 se l\u00e9ta zab\u00fdvali my\u0161lenkou integrace Ukrajiny do NATO, co\u017e by v\u00fdrazn\u011b oslabilo ruskou vojenskou pozici a d\u00e1le izolovalo Moskvu \u2013 l\u00e1kavou vyhl\u00eddku pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed up\u0159ednost\u0148ovali unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011bt. Po pu\u010di v roce 2014 se Moskva p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dila, \u017ee USA jsou odhodl\u00e1ny dostat Rusko pod svou kontrolu. V reakci na to Rusko nevid\u011blo jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e se br\u00e1nit \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm spojen\u00edm s \u010c\u00ednou a dal\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1rody, aby zm\u011bnilo sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d z unipol\u00e1rn\u00edho na multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed. V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee tyto dv\u011b ud\u00e1losti znamenaly za\u010d\u00e1tek glob\u00e1ln\u00edho boje mezi nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1rody o p\u0159etvo\u0159en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du \u2013 t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Od t\u00e9 doby se konflikt pouze stup\u0148oval a brzy m\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout bodu zlomu, kter\u00fd v\u0161echno zm\u011bn\u00ed. N\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00fd obr\u00e1zek (kliknut\u00edm zv\u011bt\u0161\u00edte) mapuje \u010dasovou osu ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch sv\u011btov\u00fdch \u0159\u00e1d\u016f a sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00e1lek a nab\u00edz\u00ed jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pohled na jejich v\u00fdvoj \u2013 a kam se m\u016f\u017eeme ub\u00edrat d\u00e1l.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d veden\u00fd USA pro\u0161el od konce druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky n\u011bkolika odli\u0161n\u00fdmi f\u00e1zemi. Od roku 1945 do roku 1991 byl definov\u00e1n studenou v\u00e1lkou \u2013 glob\u00e1ln\u00edm bojem mezi USA a Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem. Po rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu v roce 1991 pro\u0161el pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d masivn\u00edm posunem, kdy se USA staly nespornou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed supervelmoc\u00ed. Tato \u00e9ra, \u010dasto naz\u00fdvan\u00e1 \u201eunipol\u00e1rn\u00ed moment\u201c, trvala od roku 1991 do roku 2025. P\u0159esto\u017ee trvala v\u00edce ne\u017e 34 let, p\u0159edstava, \u017ee by USA mohly unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d udr\u017eet donekone\u010dna, nikdy nebyla realistick\u00e1. Nyn\u00ed se nach\u00e1z\u00edme v nestabiln\u00edm obdob\u00ed adaptace, kdy unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d ustupuje multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

St\u00e1le je t\u0159eba mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed ur\u010dit \u2013 a to nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je hranice sf\u00e9r vlivu USA, Ruska a \u010c\u00edny v tomto vznikaj\u00edc\u00edm multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 prohran\u00e1 a vyhl\u00eddka na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed na Tchaj-wanu se den ode dne zmen\u0161uje, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da akceptovala, \u017ee \u00fapln\u00e9 podroben\u00ed Ruska a \u010c\u00edny jej\u00ed unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed dominanci ji\u017e nen\u00ed dosa\u017eiteln\u00fdm c\u00edlem, alespo\u0148 ne v bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed budoucnosti. Sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na \u00fapln\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed se USA nyn\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na maximalizaci sv\u00e9 moci v nov\u00e9m multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 omezuj\u00ed vliv sv\u00fdch nejstra\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rival\u016f: Ruska a \u010c\u00edny. I kdy\u017e se zd\u00e1, \u017ee se USA odkl\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed od unipol\u00e1rn\u00edho modelu a neochotn\u011b uznaj\u00ed existenci soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00edch mocnost\u00ed (Ruska a \u010c\u00edny), st\u00e1le se sna\u017e\u00ed b\u00fdt dominantn\u00ed silou v multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b. Hranice sf\u00e9r vlivu USA, Ruska a \u010c\u00edny v tomto vznikaj\u00edc\u00edm multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b je\u0161t\u011b nebyly definov\u00e1ny a situace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nestabiln\u00ed a nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1. Zda k tomuto p\u0159echodu m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt, ani\u017e by do\u0161lo k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu konfliktu, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159enou ot\u00e1zkou. V men\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku to odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed, jak mocn\u00e9 zlo\u010dineck\u00e9 organizace \u2013 jako jsou mafie a pouli\u010dn\u00ed gangy \u2013 operuj\u00ed ve m\u011bst\u011b. V ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by gang nebo mafie eliminovaly v\u0161echny rivaly. Pokud se v\u0161ak n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed rivalov\u00e9 uk\u00e1\u017eou jako p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 siln\u00ed na to, aby je bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 zni\u010dit, konflikt se posouv\u00e1 sm\u011brem k vymezov\u00e1n\u00ed hranic, dokud nen\u00ed dosa\u017eeno form\u00e1ln\u00ed dohody, kter\u00e1 rozd\u011bl\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed. Stejn\u00e1 dynamika se nyn\u00ed odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku mezi USA, Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou, jak prob\u00edh\u00e1 t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana man\u00e9vruje, aby roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila svou moc a vliv, dokud nen\u00ed dosa\u017eeno nov\u00e9 dohody, kter\u00e1 definuje rovnov\u00e1hu multipol\u00e1rn\u00edho sv\u011bta. Stanoven\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00fdch hranic r\u016fzn\u00fdch sf\u00e9r vlivu v multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b \u2013 a jejich formalizace do dohody \u2013 bude slo\u017eit\u00fd a zdlouhav\u00fd proces. Nestane se to p\u0159es noc. Dokud nebude dosa\u017eeno form\u00e1ln\u00ed dohody mezi hlavn\u00edmi sv\u011btov\u00fdmi mocnostmi \u2013 podobn\u011b jako V\u00edde\u0148sk\u00fd kongres po napoleonsk\u00fdch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch, Versaillesk\u00e1 smlouva po prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce a Jaltsk\u00e1 konference na konci druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky \u2013 bude t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka pokra\u010dovat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n: Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed bitva 3. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod p\u0159edstavuje jednu z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch nejistot v nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00edm multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b. V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee tento region bude kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd. Pokud tam USA a jejich spojenci zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed, mohlo by to otev\u0159\u00edt dve\u0159e k omezen\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho vlivu v multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b. Pokud v\u0161ak Rusko a \u010c\u00edna z\u00edskaj\u00ed v tomto strategick\u00e9m regionu p\u0159evahu, USA utrp\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed geopolitick\u00fd \u00fapadek, podobn\u011b jako Britsk\u00e9 imp\u00e9rium po prvn\u00ed a druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Region d\u00e1le komplikuje p\u0159\u00edtomnost siln\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f, jako je Turecko, Izrael s jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi a \u00cdr\u00e1n, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed v\u0161ichni sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy. USA, Rusko a \u010c\u00edna budou muset nejen definovat sv\u00e9 hranice na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, ale i tito region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i. V dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b se nic ned\u011bje. Region z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nestabiln\u00ed a potenci\u00e1l eskalace region\u00e1ln\u00edho konfliktu v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontaci z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 re\u00e1lnou mo\u017enost\u00ed. Kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou je role \u00cdr\u00e1nu v multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00e9m \u0159\u00e1du. Pokud je Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil v multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b, pak je \u00cdr\u00e1n kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro rovnov\u00e1hu sil v r\u00e1mci Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. Kontrola \u00cdr\u00e1nu by USA poskytla je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv na zdroje uhlovod\u00edk\u016f na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vl\u00e1da v Teher\u00e1nu spojen\u00e1 s USA by mohla pomoci zablokovat \u010d\u00ednskou iniciativu P\u00e1s a stezka v dal\u0161\u00edm postupu na z\u00e1pad a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by od\u0159\u00edzla 14 % \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu ropy. Tak\u00e9 by to br\u00e1nilo rusk\u00e9mu obchodu p\u0159es Kaspick\u00e9 mo\u0159e a slou\u017eilo by jako odrazov\u00fd m\u016fstek pro destabilizaci Ruska z jeho ji\u017en\u00edho k\u0159\u00eddla. Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, dostat \u00cdr\u00e1n pod vliv USA by otev\u0159elo dve\u0159e k dal\u0161\u00edmu podkop\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska i \u010c\u00edny. Pro n\u011b je \u00cdr\u00e1n strategickou hloubkou. Rusko a \u010c\u00edna si nemohou dovolit nechat \u00cdr\u00e1n padnout \u2013 a USA a Izrael si nemohou dovolit nechat ho st\u00e1t. Ot\u00e1zkou je: kdo zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed? Je pochybn\u00e9, \u017ee USA a jejich spojenci dok\u00e1\u017eou vyhr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b proti Rusku nebo potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku o Tchaj-wan proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Jejich nejlep\u0161\u00ed \u0161anc\u00ed na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho vlivu v multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b je \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n, co\u017e je p\u0159esn\u011b to, co pr\u00e1v\u011b ud\u011blali. Zda usp\u011bj\u00ed, je zcela jin\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u00e1v\u00e1 rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm ohniskem tohoto zrychluj\u00edc\u00edho se boje mezi velmocemi, n\u00e1sledky se neomez\u00ed jen na rakety a mapy \u2013 mohou se rovnou prom\u00edtnout do pen\u011bz. Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 v\u00e1lka m\u016f\u017ee prudce zv\u00fd\u0161it ceny energi\u00ed, zat\u00ed\u017eit dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce, zv\u011bt\u0161it vl\u00e1dn\u00ed deficity a vynutit si nouzov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem by mohla b\u00fdt katalyz\u00e1torem pro tot\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bnovou resetaci \u2013 n\u00e1hlou, ru\u0161ivou a brut\u00e1ln\u00ed pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, kdo se ocitne v nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9 pozici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee \u201esv\u011btov\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dy\u201c nejsou nic nov\u00e9ho. Sv\u011btov\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dy jsou ji\u017e dlouho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27053,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[113],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-valka-na-ukrajine"],"yoast_head":"\nBl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod: Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b 3. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky - L\u00edpov\u00fd List<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/blizky-vychod-rozhodujici-bojiste-3-svetove-valky\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod: Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b 3. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky - L\u00edpov\u00fd List\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee \u201esv\u011btov\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dy\u201c nejsou nic nov\u00e9ho. 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