{"id":504,"date":"2023-10-03T02:38:21","date_gmt":"2023-10-03T00:38:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/?p=504"},"modified":"2023-10-03T02:40:15","modified_gmt":"2023-10-03T00:40:15","slug":"konec-cesty-pro-dolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/konec-cesty-pro-dolar\/","title":{"rendered":"Konec cesty pro dolar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alasdair MacLeod<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proto\u017ee asij\u0161t\u00ed hegemoni jsou nepochybn\u011b schopni zav\u00e9st zlat\u00e9 standardy, co zb\u00fdv\u00e1 dolaru?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek popisuje, jak nejist\u00fdm se stal pap\u00edrov\u00fd dolar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prozat\u00edm se zd\u00e1, \u017ee dolar je podporov\u00e1n rostouc\u00edmi v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f. S jejich r\u016fstem v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b porostou dal\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty portfolia zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f, co\u017e povede k likvidaci dolaru. Nen\u00ed obecn\u011b zn\u00e1mo, kolik dolar\u016f a cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f denominovan\u00fdch v dolarech vlastn\u00ed cizinci, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina je dr\u017eena mimo bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m USA. A mno\u017estv\u00ed ciz\u00ed m\u011bny, kterou Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 dr\u017e\u00ed na pokryt\u00ed tohoto prodeje, je ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s t\u00edm velmi mal\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f tak\u00e9 hroz\u00ed destabilizac\u00ed bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, co\u017e je probl\u00e9m, kter\u00e9mu \u010del\u00ed euroz\u00f3na, Brit\u00e1nie i Japonsko. Jak se ale m\u016f\u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da p\u0159ed t\u00edmto nebezpe\u010d\u00edm chr\u00e1nit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jedinou odpov\u011bd\u00ed je uznat konec \u00e9ry fiat pen\u011bz a vr\u00e1tit dolar ke zlat\u00e9mu standardu. Americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v\u0161ak nem\u00e1 mand\u00e1t k p\u0159ijet\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed a alespo\u0148 ofici\u00e1ln\u011b st\u00e1le pop\u00edr\u00e1 pot\u0159ebu stabilizace m\u011bny. Stru\u010dn\u011b je zm\u00edn\u011bn pr\u00e1vn\u00ed postoj ohledn\u011b \u00fastavy, proto\u017ee bude nutn\u00e9 zv\u00e1\u017eit z\u00e1kony, kter\u00e9 zajist\u00ed budoucnost dolaru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bohu\u017eel, zlat\u00e9 dr\u017eby americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b ohro\u017eeny. Nav\u00edc, proto\u017ee asij\u0161t\u00ed hegemoni nashrom\u00e1\u017edili zna\u010dn\u00e9 rezervy zlata krom\u011b sv\u00fdch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch rezerv, nevyhnuteln\u011b by se objevila siln\u00e1 neochota p\u0159en\u00e9st ekonomickou moc na Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu up\u0159ednost\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm n\u00e1vratu ke zlat\u00fdm standard\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u016fj z\u00e1v\u011br je, \u017ee \u00e9ra glob\u00e1ln\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu zalo\u017een\u00e9ho na fiat dolarech rychle kon\u010d\u00ed a pro Ameriku a dolar nem\u016f\u017ee existovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n B. To t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b povede ke konci fiat dolaru a ke konci americk\u00e9 hegemonie. .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00davod<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rostouc\u00ed po\u010det analytik\u016f si uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee \u00e9ra pap\u00edrov\u00e9ho dolaru se mo\u017en\u00e1 ch\u00fdl\u00ed ke konci. Jen velmi m\u00e1lo investi\u010dn\u00edch profesion\u00e1l\u016f v\u00ed, co o\u010dek\u00e1vat. D\u016fkladn\u011b keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00fd v\u00fdhled, v\u011bt\u0161ina st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee kontrola \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb Fedem m\u016f\u017ee omezit inflaci spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen a \u017ee reces\u00edm se lze tak\u00e9 vyhnout zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch deficit\u016f. Ale rozpory plynouc\u00ed ze zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch se ekonomick\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek a neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho r\u016fstu inflace IPC tyto makroekonomick\u00e9 teorie zcela vyvracej\u00ed. Obvi\u0148ovat z toho Rusko a OPEC+ je sice l\u00e1kav\u00fd, ale ne dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u00e1dn\u00fd argument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9, \u017ee fiat m\u011bny jsou \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l nestabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Jedin\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm pro dolar je fixace ceny p\u016fj\u010dky: ale za co? V cel\u00e9 historii n\u00e1rodn\u00edch ekonomik to bylo zlato nebo st\u0159\u00edbro. Odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1vratu k v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b dolaru za fixn\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed zlata je ale v administrativ\u011b tak syst\u00e9mov\u011b zako\u0159en\u011bno, \u017ee je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 uva\u017eovat o tomto \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed by\u0165 jen jako o krajn\u00edm \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku se pod\u00edv\u00e1m na pozad\u00ed toho, co jist\u011b bude dolarov\u00e1 krize. Nal\u00e9havost tohoto probl\u00e9mu byla zv\u00fdrazn\u011bna klesaj\u00edc\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm vlivem Ameriky ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s asijsk\u00fdmi hegemony a rozma\u0159ilost\u00ed americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. Je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u00e9, \u017ee zahrani\u010dn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di oslab\u00ed vliv dolaru a dopad, kter\u00fd by zahrnoval dolarov\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky vydan\u00e9 mimo americk\u00fd bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m, je obrovsk\u00fd. N\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e1 tabulka ukazuje p\u0159ibli\u017enou polohu. [i]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Abychom shrnuli d\u016fkazy, cizinci vlastn\u00ed nebo jsou vystaveni ohromn\u00fdm 137 bilion\u016fm dolar\u016f. Celkov\u011b, pokud se rozhodnou za\u010d\u00edt sni\u017eovat sv\u00e9 riziko, budou m\u00edt obyvatel\u00e9 USA m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e bilion dolar\u016f v ekvivalentu ciz\u00ed m\u011bny k prodeji v\u00fdm\u011bnou. V tr\u017en\u00ed \u0159e\u010di se dolar stane \u201epouze nab\u00edzen\u00fdm\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To je skute\u010dn\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed rostouc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Jak rostou, klesaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnota 37 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f v dlouhodob\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edrech v zahrani\u010dn\u00edm vlastnictv\u00ed jednodu\u0161e urychl\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch investic a likvidaci dolaru. To nebude kompenzov\u00e1no t\u00edm, \u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed dr\u017eitel\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investic likviduj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice bez jednoduch\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ameri\u010dt\u00ed dr\u017eitel\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f dr\u017e\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echny z nich ve form\u011b ADR, kotovan\u00fdch a oce\u0148ovan\u00fdch v dolarech. S rostouc\u00edmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami bude klesat i jejich hodnota, tak\u017ee m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee je prodaj\u00ed i ameri\u010dt\u00ed investo\u0159i. Prodej ADR nevede k prodeji podkladov\u00e9 ciz\u00ed m\u011bny, zat\u00edmco prodej dolarov\u00e9ho cenn\u00e9ho pap\u00edru zahrani\u010dn\u00edm dr\u017eitelem t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b povede \u2013 pokud se skupina zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f jako celek nespokoj\u00ed se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm sv\u00fdch kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch dr\u017eeb. dolarov\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eliminace zahrani\u010dn\u00edch dolarov\u00fdch investic je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry neviditeln\u00fdm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm pro dolar ze strany americk\u00fdch koment\u00e1tor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se hl\u00e1s\u00ed k p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee je cizinci pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed hromadit. Dal\u0161\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nebo v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f, ke kter\u00e9mu z\u0159ejm\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed, zdaleka neochr\u00e1n\u00ed dolar, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b povede k likvidaci portfolia, likvidaci dolaru, a t\u00edm jeho kolapsu, proto\u017ee obyvatel\u00e9 USA budou m\u00edt k dispozici jen m\u00e1lo ciz\u00ed m\u011bny, kter\u00e1 by jej podpo\u0159ila. absorbovat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, kdy\u017e m\u00ed\u0159\u00edme do roku prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb, je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka USA proti Rusku se m\u011bn\u00ed v politickou a vojenskou katastrofu. Ukrajina m\u00e1 nedostatek lid\u00ed a Rusko t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ze sankc\u00ed uvalen\u00fdch Z\u00e1padem. Neshody mezi \u010dleny NATO za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed vyplouvat na povrch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak to ovlivn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru v dolar? To v\u0161e vypad\u00e1 jako fin\u00e1le<\/em> , konec \u00e9ry fiat pen\u011bz a za\u010d\u00e1tek nov\u00e9ho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho re\u017eimu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159edpoklady pro novou dolarovou krizi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nikdy nen\u00ed moudr\u00e9 prosazovat politick\u00e9 a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky a\u017e do konce. Ale p\u0159esn\u011b to, jak se zd\u00e1, americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da d\u011bl\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V roce 1971, kdy byla zah\u00e1jena politika nahrazen\u00ed zlata dolarem jako univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bnou a standardem oce\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed, existuj\u00ed v\u0161echny d\u016fvody k obav\u00e1m, \u017ee by pro americkou vl\u00e1du bylo politicky nemo\u017en\u00e9 vr\u00e1tit pap\u00edrov\u00fd dolar jako zdrav\u00e9 pen\u00edze. D\u016fvody, pro\u010d na tom nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee z\u00e1le\u017eet, jsou dva: dolar ztr\u00e1c\u00ed svou kontrolu jako sv\u011btov\u00e1 rezervn\u00ed m\u011bna a \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby rostou v recesi, kter\u00e1 by se mohla zm\u011bnit v recesi a destabilizovat horu dluhu, kter\u00e1 je odvr\u00e1cenou stranou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 neproduktivn\u00edho p\u016fj\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edlu\u017eovan\u00fdch bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jsem uk\u00e1zal, jak je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 v\u00e1zat n\u00e1klady \u00fav\u011bru na zlato, aby byla zaji\u0161t\u011bna jeho stabilita, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy se \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1 nestabilita vymyk\u00e1 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed kontrole. Takov\u00e1 doba zjevn\u011b nastala. Popsal jsem praktick\u00e9 aspekty, jak toho dos\u00e1hnout, co\u017e je jednodu\u0161e zajistit, aby m\u011bna byla voln\u011b sm\u011bniteln\u00e1 za zlat\u00e9 mince a slitky. Bylo prok\u00e1z\u00e1no, \u017ee modern\u00ed verze t\u00e9to metody znovu a znovu funguje ve form\u011b m\u011bnov\u00fdch rad doporu\u010den\u00fdch a implementovan\u00fdch pro \u0159adu vl\u00e1d profesorem Stevem Hankem, kter\u00e9 fixuj\u00ed padaj\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bny na relativn\u011b stabiln\u00ed dolar. Ale samotn\u00fd dolar se nyn\u00ed st\u00e1v\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u011b nestabiln\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nyn\u00ed je nal\u00e9hav\u011b nutn\u00e9, aby americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zv\u00e1\u017eila zaveden\u00ed zlat\u00e9ho standardu pro dolar, proto\u017ee asij\u0161t\u00ed hegemoni \u2013 Rusko a \u010c\u00edna \u2013 jsou schopni p\u0159ev\u00e9st sv\u00e9 rubly a j\u00fcany na spolehliv\u00e9 zlat\u00e9 standardy. Snadnost, s jakou to Rusko dok\u00e1\u017ee, byla demonstrov\u00e1na v m\u00e9m ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku zde<\/a> . Nav\u00edc tento krok st\u00e1le v\u00edce vyhovuje rusk\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm. Ale pokud to Rusko ud\u011bl\u00e1, nevyhnuteln\u011b to fat\u00e1ln\u011b podkope pozici pap\u00edrov\u00e9ho dolaru. A m\u00e1lokdo si uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna op\u011bt vyb\u00edz\u00ed sv\u00e9 ob\u010dany k n\u00e1kupu zlata. Toto je z Jerusalem Post, 7. \u010dervna:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201eMinul\u00fd t\u00fdden do\u0161lo k ud\u00e1losti, kterou mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia zcela minula. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 lidov\u00e1 banka (PBOC) u\u010dinila dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fd krok, aby povzbudila \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed, m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1mo\u017enou \u010d\u00e1st \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f k n\u00e1kupu zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 lidov\u00e1 banka otev\u0159ela mechanismus, kter\u00fd ob\u010dan\u016fm umo\u017e\u0148uje p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u011bt hotovostn\u00ed \u00faspory v RMB dr\u017een\u00e9 na jejich vlastn\u00edch bankovn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech na fyzick\u00e9 zlato pouh\u00fdm stisknut\u00edm tla\u010d\u00edtka.\u201c<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna c\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee je \u010das chr\u00e1nit i sv\u00e9 chud\u0161\u00ed ob\u010dany a j\u00fcan p\u0159ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bnovou nestabilitou?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 se hegemoni umis\u0165uj\u00ed sami. P\u0159esto\u017ee um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rublu na zlat\u00fd standard by bylo pova\u017eov\u00e1no za akt extr\u00e9mn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 agrese v\u016f\u010di pap\u00edrov\u00e9mu dolaru, Rusko nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebuje stabilizovat svou m\u011bnu. Ve sv\u011bt\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9m na dolar, nasycen\u00e9m protiruskou propagandou, se jak\u00e9koli oslaben\u00ed dolaru jednodu\u0161e n\u00e1sob\u00ed kurzem rublu. To je chyba v Putinov\u011b dohod\u011b se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen energi\u00ed. Jak jsem uvedl ve v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku, pokud se budou t\u0159\u00e1st zimou v N\u011bmecku, zmrznou v Rusku: a to bez masivn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch dotac\u00ed pro rusk\u00fd lid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zp\u011btn\u00e1 vazba od \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016f odhaluje mylnou p\u0159edstavu, \u017ee na obchodn\u00ed bilanci z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed. Maj\u00ed pravdu, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed zlep\u0161uj\u00ed obchodn\u00ed bilanci Ruska. Pro\u010d by tedy kurz rublu nem\u011bl b\u00fdt v\u00fdhodn\u00fd? Odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed, \u017ee kupn\u00ed s\u00edla fiat m\u011bny zcela z\u00e1vis\u00ed na v\u00ed\u0159e v jej\u00ed platnost jako prost\u0159edku sm\u011bny. A i kdy\u017e je pravda, \u017ee rusk\u00fd export t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z rostouc\u00edch cen ropy a plynu, v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed krizi, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00edme, se d\u016fv\u011bra v rubl pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nezlep\u0161\u00ed, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e je pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed spekulanty nedostupn\u00fd a Rusov\u00e9 jsou d\u00e9monizov\u00e1ni na kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch trz\u00edch. .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proto mus\u00edme p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Rusko bude nuceno podniknout smyslupln\u00e9 kroky ke stabilizaci rublu, co\u017e lze prov\u00e9st pouze navr\u00e1cen\u00edm rublu ke zlat\u00e9mu standardu. Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika m\u00e1 nav\u00edc n\u00edzk\u00e9 da\u0148ov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 by v\u00fdrazn\u011b t\u011b\u017eily z \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, kter\u00e9 odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed zlato jako pen\u00edze, na rozd\u00edl od pap\u00edrov\u00fdch rubl\u016f. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby jednolet\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky v rublech, kter\u00e1 je v sou\u010dasnosti 16 %, m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat jej\u00ed pokles na 3 % b\u011bhem nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 dlouh\u00e9 doby s obrovsk\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi v\u00fdhodami. Existuj\u00ed d\u016fkazy, \u017ee vysoc\u00ed Rusov\u00e9, v\u010detn\u011b Putina, tomuto bodu rozum\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdyby jen USA mohly z\u00edskat podobn\u00e9 v\u00fdhody ze zdrav\u00fdch pen\u011bz! Bohu\u017eel to vy\u017eaduje \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9 politick\u00e9, strategick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed, ne\u017e jak\u00e9 aktu\u00e1ln\u011b funguje ve Washingtonu a Langley. M\u00edsto toho je keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00fdm ak\u010dn\u00edm pl\u00e1nem, aby vl\u00e1da zv\u00fd\u0161ila svou fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed a monet\u00e1rn\u00ed podporu ekonomice, aby zabr\u00e1nila sklouznut\u00ed do recese. A politici jsou v\u00edce informov\u00e1ni o ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 stabilit\u011b p\u0159i ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch ne\u017e o nestabilit\u011b v 70. letech, kdy byl zaveden pap\u00edrov\u00fd dolar. Domn\u00edvaj\u00ed se, \u017ee probl\u00e9m inflace spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen je exogenn\u00ed a nen\u00ed d\u016fsledkem p\u0159edchoz\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky. A tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee obdob\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nebo alespo\u0148 m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farovn\u00ed bude sta\u010dit k tomu, aby se inflace CPI vr\u00e1tila k 2% c\u00edli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amerika je uv\u011bzn\u011bna v politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 verzi Stockholmsk\u00e9ho syndromu. Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed vlivn\u00ed analytici, kte\u0159\u00ed se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed zapojovat do zbo\u017en\u00fdch p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee zejm\u00e9na ceny energi\u00ed nejen\u017ee rostou, ale budou i nad\u00e1le r\u016fst. Toto pl\u00ed\u017eiv\u00e9 podez\u0159en\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pronikne do ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho my\u0161len\u00ed v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu a v\u00fdvoje ud\u00e1lost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to osv\u011bty p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 jednotka JPMorgan v sou\u010dasnosti ceny Brentu na 150 USD. D\u016fsledky pro ceny topn\u00e9ho oleje a nafty jsou obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b \u0161kodliv\u00e9. Tyto hodnoty ji\u017e rostou, jak ukazuje momentka pohybu cen energi\u00ed a komodit za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Mezi dal\u0161\u00ed ceny rostouc\u00ed p\u0159ed zimou v USA pat\u0159\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed potraviny, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee jak\u00fdkoli pohyb sm\u011brem k normalizaci IPC je je\u0161t\u011b daleko. A pak existuje \u0161irok\u00e1 nev\u011bdomost, kter\u00e1 obklopuje d\u016fsledky cyklu bankovn\u00edch p\u016fj\u010dek, kter\u00fd vstupuje do f\u00e1ze kontrakce. D\u016fsledkem toho je, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky ztrat\u00ed kontrolu nad \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami, proto\u017ee zoufal\u00ed dlu\u017en\u00edci se zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edmi se pen\u011b\u017en\u00edmi toky tahaj\u00ed za vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky: budou prost\u011b muset platit, aby z\u016fstali v podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vliv \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9ho cyklu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zjednodu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed argument vinit deprese, recese a deprese nedostatky soukrom\u00e9ho sektoru. D\u016fvodem je v\u017edy sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed. To je ale zp\u016fsobeno p\u0159edchoz\u00ed nadm\u011brnou expanz\u00ed bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f a m\u00e1 povahu korekce p\u0159edchoz\u00edho stavu. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce a \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le bude expanze pokra\u010dovat, t\u00edm destruktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bude n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 kontrakce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keynes a dal\u0161\u00ed ignorovali tuto realitu a investovali do toho, aby vl\u00e1dy zas\u00e1hly do ekonomick\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed. To vy\u017eadovalo kone\u010dn\u00e9 opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed zdrav\u00fdch pen\u011bz. P\u016fvodn\u00ed my\u0161lenkou bylo, aby vl\u00e1dy vyu\u017eily hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho poklesu stimulac\u00ed ekonomiky z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00fdm hospoda\u0159en\u00edm s rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdmi deficity a n\u00e1sledn\u011b obnovily ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm da\u0148ov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, a\u017e se ekonomika zotav\u00ed. V\u011b\u0159ilo se, \u017ee pomoc\u00ed t\u011bchto prost\u0159edk\u016f budou recese minimalizov\u00e1ny a vl\u00e1dn\u00ed finance budou v pr\u016fb\u011bhu ekonomick\u00e9ho cyklu vyrovnan\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To byl argument, kter\u00fd byl se zjevn\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bchem pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n v pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch letech a\u017e do konce brettonwoodsk\u00e9 dohody, kdy se dolarov\u00e1 inflace M3 zdvojn\u00e1sobila z 27 miliard dolar\u016f v \u010dervenci 1950 na 59 miliard dolar\u016f v srpnu 1971, bez infla\u010dn\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1sledovaly po pozastaven\u00ed Bretton Woods Agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdy\u017e se Bretton Woods za\u010dal rozpadat po zhroucen\u00ed lond\u00fdnsk\u00e9ho zlat\u00e9ho fondu koncem \u0161edes\u00e1t\u00fdch let, probl\u00e9mem pro americk\u00e9 velekn\u011bze makroekonomie byla omezen\u00ed sv\u011brac\u00ed kazajky zlat\u00e9ho standardu, nikoli selh\u00e1n\u00ed jejich ekonomick\u00fdch a m\u011bnov\u00fdch teori\u00ed. Bretton Woods byl opu\u0161t\u011bn a od t\u00e9 doby vl\u00e1dou inspirovan\u00e1 ekonomika zdvojn\u00e1sobila pravd\u011bpodobnost ne\u00fasp\u011bchu. Tabulka americk\u00e9 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed pozice ilustruje d\u016fsledky obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed voln\u00fdch trh\u016f poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e se n\u011bco pokaz\u00ed, a prost\u011b zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edch stimul\u016f na \u00fakor rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho deficitu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Abychom uvedli tyto deficity do kontextu, ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2021 \u010dinily v\u00fddaje feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy 6,822 bilionu dolar\u016f a p\u0159\u00edjmy 4,047 bilionu dolar\u016f. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, deficit v\u00fddaj\u016f \u010dinil 31,4 % p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Po kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m o\u017eiven\u00ed ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2022 se deficit v aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce, kter\u00fd brzy skon\u010d\u00ed, zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na 2 biliony dolar\u016f. Ale s vyhl\u00eddkou na \u0161iroce o\u010dek\u00e1vanou recesi a del\u0161\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb bude fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit v roce 2024 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v kontextu o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 recese a navzdory rekordn\u00edmu vl\u00e1dn\u00edmu deficitu se keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00e1 teorie stimulace vy\u010derpala a utrp\u011bla \u00fapln\u00fd kolaps. Ale to nen\u00ed v\u0161e. Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb m\u00e1 o\u017eivit ekonomiku, a to se jim tak\u00e9 nepovedlo. Makroekonomick\u00e9 teorie se tak vzdaluj\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 realit\u011b, \u017ee cel\u00e9 zalo\u017een\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 profese mus\u00ed p\u0159ehodnotit sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edstup k voln\u00fdm trh\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cyklick\u00fd probl\u00e9m bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jedn\u00edm z mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch omyl\u016f modern\u00edho my\u0161len\u00ed je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u00e1 slepota v\u016f\u010di cyklick\u00e9 povaze bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f. Co je nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed HDP, kter\u00fd se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f? Nejde o nic v\u00edc a nic m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e o poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f pro kvalifikovan\u00e9 transakce, kter\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed HDP. Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee nikdo nech\u00e1pe d\u016fsledky t\u00e9to d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 skute\u010dnosti. HDP roste a kles\u00e1, ta\u017een nikoli spot\u0159ebiteli, ale zm\u011bnami v dostupnosti bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f. Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed zdrojem poklesu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 aktivity \u2013 hnac\u00ed silou je dostupnost \u00fav\u011br\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed nerozum\u011bj\u00ed cyklu bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f a jeho d\u016fsledk\u016fm, tvo\u0159\u00ed drtivou v\u011bt\u0161inu ekonomick\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f ve finan\u010dn\u00edm i nefinan\u010dn\u00edm sektoru. A nejtvrdohlav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kohortu pop\u00edra\u010d\u016f lze nal\u00e9zt ve vl\u00e1d\u00e1ch a jejich byrokratech. Slepota k p\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u00e1m pravideln\u00e9ho vzestupu a p\u00e1du skupinov\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed \u2013 od hlavn\u00edch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank po bankovn\u00ed regul\u00e1tory \u2013 je zdrojem rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se cyklick\u00e9 \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 krize. Bohu\u017eel, pokud vl\u00e1da a jej\u00ed agenti pokra\u010duj\u00ed v prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed \u0161patn\u00e9 politiky dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouho, m\u00edsto toho, aby byli zesm\u011b\u0161\u0148ov\u00e1ni, d\u016fv\u011bra ve\u0159ejnosti v n\u011b roste. To je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed probl\u00e9m na kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed nepochybn\u011b vstoupily do politick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed skupiny centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edci bank nejsou v\u016f\u010di tomuto trendu imunn\u00ed. V d\u016fsledku toho, m\u00edsto aby \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b dodr\u017eovali sv\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed c\u00edle, jsou zadlu\u017eeni centr\u00e1ln\u00edm bank\u00e1m a vl\u00e1dn\u00edm regul\u00e1tor\u016fm. Jejich skute\u010dn\u00fdm podnik\u00e1n\u00edm je b\u00fdt obchodn\u00edky s \u00fav\u011bry, nen\u00e9st odpov\u011bdnost za ty, kte\u0159\u00ed se naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed stakeholdery a regul\u00e1tory, ale dosahovat zisk\u016f pro sv\u00e9 akcion\u00e1\u0159e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee jen m\u00e1lo bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f si uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee jsou uv\u011bzn\u011bni v cyklu bankovn\u00edch p\u016fj\u010dek, kter\u00fd si sami vytvo\u0159ili. To je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d cyklus trval tak dlouho, dokud byly k dispozici \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 statistiky. Ale spoj\u00edme-li nepochopen\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010din cyklu s nedostatkem odpov\u011bdnosti akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f, m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee mana\u017ee\u0159i velk\u00fdch bank si budou myslet, \u017ee s regula\u010dn\u00ed podporou mohou vyjednat cestu z ekonomick\u00e9ho poklesu jednodu\u0161e t\u00edm, \u017ee se budou dr\u017eet pravidel. T\u011bch p\u00e1r bank, kter\u00e9 tentokr\u00e1t neusp\u011bly, \u0159e\u0161ili regul\u00e1to\u0159i, \u010d\u00edm\u017e obnovili d\u016fv\u011bru v regula\u010dn\u00ed re\u017eim pro ostatn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdy\u017e ale bank\u00e9\u0159i usly\u0161\u00ed probuzen\u00ed, \u017ee jejich rozvahy jsou p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 dluhy a ceny komodit v\u00fdrobc\u016fm rostou, pokud urychlen\u011b nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 anga\u017eovanosti, \u010del\u00ed bankrotu kv\u016fli nedobytn\u00fdm pohled\u00e1vk\u00e1m a klesaj\u00edc\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. To je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d se bankovn\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry zmen\u0161uj\u00ed a pro\u010d se re\u00e1ln\u00fd HDP sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. A sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed HDP vede k je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dek, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady na p\u016fj\u010dky. Tlak na banky, aby likvidovaly jak rozvahov\u00e9 investice, tak zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f, nevyhnuteln\u011b poroste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159irozen\u011b bude na dolar vyv\u00edjen tlak ze strany zahrani\u010dn\u00edch dr\u017eitel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed rozprod\u00e1vaj\u00ed sv\u00e1 aktiva. Jak ukazuje tabulka v \u00favodu tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku, tlak na dolar z t\u011bchto kombinovan\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed ohro\u017euje jeho dal\u0161\u00ed existenci. Jak\u00e1 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed budou krom\u011b p\u0159ijet\u00ed znovuzaveden\u00ed zdrav\u00e9ho zlat\u00e9ho standardu zapot\u0159eb\u00ed, aby byl zlat\u00fd standard udr\u017eiteln\u00fd?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sn\u00ed\u017eit nadm\u011brn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce, kter\u00fd kon\u010d\u00ed 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, bude deficit vl\u00e1dn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f USA \u010dinit 2 biliony dolar\u016f. Z toho t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jeden bilion tvo\u0159\u00ed \u00faroky z dluhu:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm vzrostly \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby dluhu, nazna\u010duje, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je ji\u017e v dluhov\u00e9 pasti. Nav\u00edc ve sv\u00fdch nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch odhadech \u00farokov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f dluhu (kv\u011bten 2023) rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad Kongresu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba dluhu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed bude v tomto fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce pouze 2,7 % a v roce 2024 2,9 %. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u00fdnos 3m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladny ji\u017e \u010din\u00ed 4,8 % a v\u00fdnos 10let\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhopisu p\u0159esahuje 4,5 %, jsou tyto progn\u00f3zy ji\u017e zastaral\u00e9. A vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee recese je nyn\u00ed zjevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e kdy\u017e progn\u00f3za CBO, p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech v\u00fddaj\u016f a klesaj\u00edc\u00edch da\u0148ov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjmech p\u0159es\u00e1hne rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd schodek na rok 2024 2,5 bilionu dolar\u016f, a to i za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee n\u00e1klady na v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dky ji\u017e nebudou r\u016fst. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u0161ak vzrostou na v\u00edce ne\u017e 1,5 bilionu dolar\u016f, co\u017e povede k pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm deficit\u016fm podobn\u00fdm uzam\u010den\u00ed covidem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V pr\u00e1v\u011b kon\u010d\u00edc\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edm roce je pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 placen\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba 2,9 %, co\u017e je ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se sou\u010dasnou sazbou p\u0159es 4,5 %. \u00da\u010dinky zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch se da\u0148ov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed zabezpe\u010den\u00ed, rostouc\u00ed cenov\u00e9 inflace, je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f, \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 krize a refinancov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho dluhu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 7,6 bilionu dolar\u016f \u010din\u00ed sou\u010dasnou situaci neudr\u017eitelnou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nejlep\u0161\u00edm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm je radik\u00e1ln\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f. Ale vzhledem k rozsahu probl\u00e9mu bude mo\u017en\u00e1 nutn\u00e9 v r\u00e1mci \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161it dan\u011b, i kdy\u017e by se m\u011bl kl\u00e1st d\u016fraz na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f. Pokud by byl \u010das na realizaci t\u011bchto \u0161krt\u016f, mohly by b\u00fdt rozlo\u017eeny do n\u011bkolika let, ale \u010das je rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jinak bude americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da jednodu\u0161e padat st\u00e1le hloub\u011bji do sv\u00e9 dluhov\u00e9 pasti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To by bylo minimum nutn\u00e9 k tomu, aby vl\u00e1da USA dala sv\u00e9 finance do po\u0159\u00e1dku a zavedla a udr\u017eela dolarov\u00fd zlat\u00fd standard. Na rozd\u00edl od keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00fdch teori\u00ed by byly ekonomick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ednosy vyrovnan\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu v\u00fdznamn\u00e9. To bylo dok\u00e1z\u00e1no ve Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, kdy\u017e 364 keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ekonom\u016f podepsalo dopis The Times<\/em> of London kritizuj\u00edc\u00ed rozpo\u010det na rok 1981. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v dob\u011b rostouc\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanosti, vysok\u00e9 inflace a recese kancl\u00e9\u0159 Geoffrey Howe zv\u00fd\u0161il dan\u011b, aby uzav\u0159el rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit. To \u010dinilo 2 % HDP, co\u017e je ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s odhadovan\u00fdm deficitem USA p\u0159es 9 % HDP. Keynesi\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 tvrdili, \u017ee zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky b\u011bhem recese bylo \u0161patn\u00e9. Ale jakmile byl dopis zve\u0159ejn\u011bn, ekonomika se za\u010dala zlep\u0161ovat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je pravda, \u017ee britsk\u00fd deficit jako pod\u00edl na celkov\u00e9 ekonomice byl mnohem men\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e kter\u00e9mu dnes \u010del\u00ed americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da. Nelze v\u0161ak pop\u0159\u00edt vyvr\u00e1cen\u00ed keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00fdch teori\u00ed o stimulaci deficitu a v\u00fdhod\u00e1ch vyrovnan\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu pro ekonomiku. Nav\u00edc, pokud se rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed p\u0159i vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e da\u0148ov\u00fdm poplatn\u00edk\u016fm umo\u017en\u00ed ponechat si v\u00edce ze sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, ekonomick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ednosy budou je\u0161t\u011b zjevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Z toho plyne doporu\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f je nejlep\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak vyrovnat rozpo\u010det a dos\u00e1hnout lep\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pot\u00e9 bude nutn\u00e9 nejen hospoda\u0159it s vyrovnan\u00fdmi rozpo\u010dty, ale tak\u00e9 striktn\u011b omezovat v\u00fddaje v nomin\u00e1ln\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed. Voln\u00fd trh, filozofie laissez-faire by m\u011bla nahradit vl\u00e1dn\u00ed z\u00e1sahy a ekonomick\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. \u00dav\u011bry centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky by m\u011bly b\u00fdt omezeny a \u00fav\u011bry komer\u010dn\u00edch bank by m\u011bly m\u00edt mo\u017enost reagovat na popt\u00e1vku po produktivn\u00edm \u00fav\u011bru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Podnik\u016fm by m\u011blo b\u00fdt umo\u017en\u011bno tan\u010dit podle melodie spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, nikoli regula\u010dn\u00edch org\u00e1n\u016f. \u0160patn\u00e9 podniky se skr\u00fdvaj\u00ed za p\u0159edpisy, kter\u00e9 po\u0161kozuj\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159skou sout\u011b\u017e prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm licenc\u00ed. Regul\u00e1to\u0159i se ne\u0159\u00edd\u00ed p\u0159\u00e1n\u00edm spot\u0159ebitele a \u010dasto neznaj\u00ed jeho profesi. Vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed zbyte\u010dnou byrokracii. Tam, kde existuj\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nily podvodn\u00fdm a ne\u010destn\u00fdm praktik\u00e1m, jsou jen z\u0159\u00eddka \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9. Spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 by m\u011bli m\u00edt nejen mo\u017enost svobodn\u011b si vybrat produkty, kter\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed, ale m\u011bli by tak\u00e9 n\u00e9st odpov\u011bdnost za sv\u00e9 \u010diny. P\u0159edstava, \u017ee st\u00e1t m\u016f\u017ee nahradit princip Caate emptor, je sm\u011b\u0161n\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Tradi\u010dn\u011b byla obchodn\u00ed cla zdrojem vl\u00e1dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, stala se v\u0161ak politicky motivovan\u00fdm prost\u0159edkem k potrest\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdmi v\u00fdvozci ve prosp\u011bch ochrany nekonkurenceschopn\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdroby. To znev\u00fdhod\u0148uje dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159ebitele a v\u00fdrobce, kte\u0159\u00ed nakupuj\u00ed suroviny a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stanoven\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb by m\u011blo b\u00fdt o regulaci z\u016fstatku zlat\u00fdch rezerv, a ne, opakuji, ne o regulaci ekonomiky. Zdroj investi\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu ve form\u011b \u00faspor by m\u011bl m\u00edt mo\u017enost vr\u00e1tit se, podporov\u00e1no odstran\u011bn\u00edm v\u0161ech dan\u00ed z \u00faspor a zisk\u016f z obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fd dluh jin\u00fd ne\u017e hypote\u010dn\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed za t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek zmiz\u00ed. Ekonomiky zalo\u017een\u00e9 na \u00faspor\u00e1ch, jako je Japonsko a \u010c\u00edna, jsou m\u00e9n\u011b n\u00e1chyln\u00e9 na inflaci spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen a volatilitu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. A pokud \u00faspory nejsou zdan\u011bny, jsou podporov\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed statistiky by m\u011bly b\u00fdt zak\u00e1z\u00e1ny, proto\u017ee slou\u017e\u00ed pouze k podpo\u0159e vl\u00e1dn\u00edch z\u00e1sah\u016f. Pokud existuje popt\u00e1vka po ur\u010dit\u00e9m souboru statistik, mohou je poskytnout subjekty soukrom\u00e9ho sektoru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA \u010del\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016fm se zlat\u00fdm standardem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je zlato jako pen\u00edze zaps\u00e1no do americk\u00e9 \u00fastavy, stejn\u011b jako definice dolaru. \u010cten\u00e1\u0159i budou p\u0159ekvapeni, kdy\u017e zjist\u00ed, \u017ee to, co b\u011b\u017en\u011b koluje ve form\u011b dolar\u016f, v\u016fbec nejsou dolary, ale bankovky Federal Reserve Notes (FRN). Podle \u00fastavn\u00edho pr\u00e1va jsou pen\u00edze Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f denominov\u00e1ny v dolarech, zat\u00edmco FRN lze splatit v dolarech, co\u017e jsou leg\u00e1ln\u00ed pen\u00edze. Proto dolarov\u00e9 bankovky FRN v ob\u011bhu nejsou leg\u00e1ln\u00ed pen\u00edze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u016f\u017ee se to zd\u00e1t jako pedantsk\u00fd bod, ale m\u011bl by b\u00fdt respektov\u00e1n a zohledn\u011bn v jak\u00e9koli budouc\u00ed legislativ\u011b. A samotn\u00fd dolar byl definov\u00e1n ve zlat\u011b. \u010cl\u00e1nek 1, odd\u00edl 10, odstavec 1 \u00dastavy \u0159\u00edk\u00e1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd st\u00e1t nesm\u00ed vstoupit do \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 smlouvy, aliance nebo konfederace; vyd\u00e1vat mark\u00fdzy a represivn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed; razit pen\u00edze; vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed akreditiv\u016f; pou\u017e\u00edvat cokoli jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e zlat\u00e9 a st\u0159\u00edbrn\u00e9 mince jako platebn\u00ed prost\u0159edek za dluhy…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

V tuto chv\u00edli je toho hodn\u011b, co mus\u00edme vy\u0159e\u0161it, ale na\u0161e starost jsou pen\u00edze. V roce 1785 Kongres jednomysln\u011b rozhodl, \u017ee m\u011bnou Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f by m\u011bl b\u00fdt dolar a \u017ee dolar bude obsahovat 375,64 zrnek \u010dist\u00e9ho st\u0159\u00edbra. Stejn\u00fdm usnesen\u00edm bylo stanoveno, \u017ee by m\u011bly b\u00fdt vyd\u00e1ny dv\u011b zlat\u00e9 mince, jedna v hodnot\u011b 10 dolar\u016f a jedna v hodnot\u011b 5 dolar\u016f. A n\u00e1sledn\u011b, podle z\u00e1kona o mincovnictv\u00ed z roku 1792, bylo opr\u00e1vn\u011bno razit zlat\u00e9 orly, \u201eka\u017ed\u00fd v hodnot\u011b 10 dolar\u016f, obsahuj\u00edc\u00ed 247,5 zrnek ryz\u00edho zlata\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dolary a jejich n\u00e1hrady, jako je FRN, byly platebn\u00edm prost\u0159edkem, proto\u017ee konkr\u00e9tn\u011b p\u0159edstavovaly zlatou a st\u0159\u00edbrnou minci stanoven\u00e9 hmotnosti. V roce 1834 se zlato stalo de facto standardem, potvrzen\u00fdm z\u00e1konem o ra\u017een\u00ed minc\u00ed z roku 1900 na 23,22 zrnek ryz\u00edho zlata, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 20,67 dolaru za unci, co\u017e je standard, kter\u00fd z\u016fstal v platnosti t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stolet\u00ed a\u017e do roku 1933.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zd\u00e1lo by se, \u017ee n\u00e1vrat k z\u00e1konn\u00e9 konvertibilit\u011b by byl snadn\u00fd, ale m\u00edsto star\u00e9 pevn\u00e9 v\u00e1hy by musel b\u00fdt definov\u00e1n nov\u00fd vztah pro \u00fastavn\u00ed dolar a FRN, pokud by jim bylo umo\u017en\u011bno nad\u00e1le existovat: budoucnost Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu by musela b\u00fdt zpochybn\u011bna, proto\u017ee p\u0159edsedala zkrachoval\u00e9 pap\u00edrov\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b vlastn\u00ed emise. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b mus\u00ed b\u00fdt dodr\u017een slib ministerstva financ\u00ed zaplatit Fedu ekvivalent jeho zlat\u00fdch rezerv ve v\u00fd\u0161i 42,22 USD za unci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i tvrdili, \u017ee definovat dolar jeho v\u00e1hou ve zlat\u011b a u\u010dinit jej pln\u011b sm\u011bniteln\u00fdm by vy\u017eadovalo v\u00fdznamnou devalvaci dolaru, mo\u017en\u00e1 na 5 000 nebo 10 000 dolar\u016f za unci zlata. A aby to bylo mo\u017en\u00e9, bylo by to ozn\u00e1meno o v\u00edkendu. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee tento nov\u00fd kurz umo\u017en\u00ed sm\u011bnu zlata za dolary, co\u017e umo\u017en\u00ed, aby nov\u00fd sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz zlata fungoval, ani\u017e by to ovlivnilo dr\u017ebu zlata ve st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladn\u011b. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee jde o zmaten\u00fd keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00fd zp\u016fsob my\u0161len\u00ed, zalo\u017een\u00fd na p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee devalvace je nezbytn\u00e1 k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu v\u016f\u010di jin\u00fdm m\u011bn\u00e1m, a\u0165 u\u017e je lze vym\u011bnit za zlato \u010di nikoli, a k poskytnut\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch pob\u00eddek k podpo\u0159e obrovsk\u00e9 soukrom\u00e9 sektorov\u00fd dluh. Bylo by to ale tak\u00e9 prodlen\u00ed s americk\u00fdm vl\u00e1dn\u00edm dluhem kv\u016fli jeho devalvaci, pokud jde o leg\u00e1ln\u00ed pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 jsou st\u00e1le zlatem, navzdory sou\u010dasn\u00fdm zam\u00edtnut\u00edm ze strany americk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tato v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 devalvace m\u00e1 jasn\u011b poskytnout prostor americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b, aby pokra\u010dovala ve sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed a monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politice. Ale bez z\u00e1sadn\u00edch reforem nast\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch v p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b netrvalo dlouho a devalvace dolaru by vedla k dal\u0161\u00edmu resetu. Zkr\u00e1tka nikoho by to dlouho neo\u0161\u00e1lilo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pak je tu ot\u00e1zka ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch americk\u00fdch rezerv, kter\u00e9 \u010din\u00ed 8 134 tun a od roku 1980 se jen m\u00e1lo zm\u011bnily. F\u00e1my o jejich stavu a rozsahu jejich skute\u010dn\u00e9 existence je \u010din\u00ed nespolehliv\u00fdmi. Do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry byly rotov\u00e1ny a pronaj\u00edm\u00e1ny v pr\u016fb\u011bhu desetilet\u00ed, pokud skute\u010dn\u011b existuj\u00ed v dod\u00e1vkov\u00fdch standardech LBMA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e1 zku\u0161enost se snahou o repatriaci \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u00fdch zlat\u00fdch rezerv dr\u017een\u00fdch pro stanoven\u00fd \u00fa\u010del ve Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed bance v New Yorku vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 poplach ohledn\u011b cel\u00e9 situace. A v roce 2002 Frank Veneroso, kter\u00fd byl v t\u00e9 dob\u011b vysoce uzn\u00e1van\u00fdm analytikem, dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee 10 000 a\u017e 14 000 tun zlat\u00fdch rezerv centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky bylo bu\u010f sm\u011bn\u011bno nebo pronajato a prod\u00e1no na trhu. Druh\u00fd \u00fadaj p\u0159edstavoval polovinu deklarovan\u00fdch sv\u011btov\u00fdch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch rezerv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Od t\u00e9 doby leasingov\u00e1 hra a potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed cen zlata jist\u011b pokra\u010duje. Ale dnes je tu rozd\u00edl: rostouc\u00ed po\u010det centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank hromad\u00ed z\u00e1soby zlata, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti dosahuj\u00ed 35 731 tun. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st tohoto r\u016fstu je zp\u016fsobena \u010c\u00ednou, Ruskem a jejich rychle se roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edmi sf\u00e9rami vlivu, kter\u00e9 nepronaj\u00edmaj\u00ed ani neobchoduj\u00ed se sv\u00fdmi zlat\u00fdmi rezervami. N\u011bmeck\u00e1 zku\u0161enost s americkou my\u0161lenkou vlastnictv\u00ed zlata a odm\u00edtnut\u00edm Bank of England dodat venezuelsk\u00e9 zlato v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby, plus fiktivn\u00ed leasingov\u00e1 hra, jsou siln\u00fdmi nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdmi d\u016fkazy, \u017ee americk\u00e9 ministerstvo financ\u00ed a trezory newyorsk\u00e9ho Fedu nemaj\u00ed zlato, jak\u00e9 maj\u00ed. tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee maj\u00ed.podle nich maj\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To samo o sob\u011b nazna\u010duje, \u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti existuje jen m\u00e1lo na podporu fiat dolaru, kdy\u017e se rezervn\u00ed pozice zm\u011bn\u00ed v n\u00e1vrat ke zlatu jako m\u011bnov\u00e9 kotv\u011b pro p\u016fj\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed. Nav\u00edc je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v \u00favahu geopolitiku zlata. Nejen, \u017ee Rusko hromad\u00ed zlato, ale informovan\u00e9 zdroje se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee ve vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dr\u017eb\u00e1ch je v\u00edce drah\u00fdch kov\u016f, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby zv\u00fd\u0161ily na asi 12 000 tun. A \u010c\u00edna od roku 1983 prosazuje politiku hromad\u011bn\u00ed zlata \u201emimo rozvahu\u201c, urychlen\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby, dovoz velk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed drah\u00fdch kov\u016f a nedovolen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho zlata opustit zemi. P\u0159es noc by \u010c\u00edna pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby na v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 000 tun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u016f\u017eeme si b\u00fdt jisti, \u017ee americk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby ch\u00e1pou tuto situaci a geopolitick\u00e9 nev\u00fdhody pro USA a jejich dolar v podob\u011b n\u00e1vratu ke zlatu jako m\u011bnov\u00e9mu standardu. V Lond\u00fdn\u011b, kde banky s drah\u00fdmi kovy nab\u00edzej\u00ed nealokovan\u00e9 zlat\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dty, by v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed ceny zlata, jak\u00e9 doporu\u010duj\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed analytici, vedlo k bankrot\u016fm \u010dlensk\u00fdch bank LBMA s mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky. A na Comex to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b povede k zaveden\u00ed ustanoven\u00ed o vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed moci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dopad de facto devalvace dolaru na ceny komodit tak\u00e9 povede k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu. Pro v\u0161echny praktick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely lze vylou\u010dit v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed znehodnocen\u00ed zlata\/dolaru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky pro p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed pap\u00edrov\u00e9ho dolaru neust\u00e1le p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00ed a americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nev\u00ed, jak zajistit jeho budoucnost. St\u00e1tn\u00ed teorie pen\u011bz se m\u011bn\u00ed v naprost\u00e9 selh\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00darokov\u00e9 sazby jsou obvykle do\u010dasn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed toho, \u017ee zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dr\u017eitel\u00e9 dolar\u016f je budou i nad\u00e1le dr\u017eet a r\u016fst. To n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee trhy o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee kupn\u00ed s\u00edla dolarov\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dek bude nad\u00e1le klesat, tak\u017ee pokud se m\u011bnov\u00e9 org\u00e1ny pokus\u00ed zastavit jejich r\u016fst, m\u011bna klesne a cizinci prodaj\u00ed. Stejn\u011b tak, jak rostou v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f, hodnota v\u0161ech finan\u010dn\u00edch aktiv bude klesat, portfolia se budou prod\u00e1vat a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bude p\u0159itahov\u00e1na i m\u011bna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u0165 tak \u010di onak, dny pap\u00edrov\u00e9ho dolaru jsou se\u010dteny. Politici nemaj\u00ed s\u00edlu ji ochr\u00e1nit vyrovn\u00e1n\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu, n\u00e1vratem ke zlat\u00e9mu standardu a p\u0159ijet\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed nezbytn\u00fdch k jeho zachov\u00e1n\u00ed. Nav\u00edc se zd\u00e1, \u017ee st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed americk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby drah\u00fdch kov\u016f jsou v\u00e1\u017en\u011b erodov\u00e1ny \u2013 bufet je pr\u00e1zdn\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To nen\u00ed jen konec pap\u00edrov\u00e9 feder\u00e1ln\u00ed dolarov\u00e9 bankovky, ale tak\u00e9 konec imp\u00e9ria, s \u010d\u00edm\u017e administrativa jen neochotn\u011b souhlas\u00ed. Mus\u00edme doufat, \u017ee zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fd strategick\u00fd smysl a Dr. Strangelove z Langley si neprosad\u00ed sv\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj (https:\/\/schiffgold.com\/commentaries\/the-end-of-the-road-for-the-dollar\/)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alasdair MacLeod Proto\u017ee asij\u0161t\u00ed hegemoni jsou nepochybn\u011b schopni zav\u00e9st zlat\u00e9 standardy, co zb\u00fdv\u00e1 dolaru? Tento…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika"],"yoast_head":"\nKonec cesty pro dolar - L\u00edpov\u00fd List<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/konec-cesty-pro-dolar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Konec cesty pro dolar - L\u00edpov\u00fd List\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alasdair MacLeod Proto\u017ee asij\u0161t\u00ed hegemoni jsou nepochybn\u011b schopni zav\u00e9st zlat\u00e9 standardy, co zb\u00fdv\u00e1 dolaru? 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