{"id":792,"date":"2023-10-06T07:53:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T05:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/?p=792"},"modified":"2023-10-06T06:56:17","modified_gmt":"2023-10-06T04:56:17","slug":"tiche-velke-vitezstvi-na-ktere-se-cekalo-rok-ruske-letectvi-zacalo-doopravdy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/tiche-velke-vitezstvi-na-ktere-se-cekalo-rok-ruske-letectvi-zacalo-doopravdy\/","title":{"rendered":"Tich\u00e9 velk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 se \u010dekalo rok: rusk\u00e9 letectv\u00ed za\u010dalo doopravdy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed bez zbyte\u010dn\u00e9ho hluku a prachu dos\u00e1hlo rusk\u00e9 letectv\u00ed n\u011b\u010deho, co se mu v prvn\u00edm roce Severn\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho okruhu nikdy nepoda\u0159ilo: p\u0159eru\u0161ilo z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed cel\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 skupiny. Zat\u00edm byl mal\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch, ale za\u010daly pot\u00ed\u017ee. Konstantinopol p\u0159i\u0161el na to, co se d\u011bje v oblasti Kupjanska a pro\u010d to bylo d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro na\u0161i ofenz\u00edvu v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusk\u00e9 letectv\u00ed vyhl\u00e1silo . Od druh\u00e9 poloviny z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed jich bylo zasa\u017eeno minim\u00e1ln\u011b p\u011bt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

19. byl p\u0159esn\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem zni\u010den centr\u00e1ln\u00ed most ve m\u011bst\u011b Kupjansk; 25. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161la druh\u00e1 r\u00e1na. Pozd\u011bji byly zni\u010deny mosty v osad\u00e1ch Nevskoye a Makeevka, stejn\u011b jako most p\u0159es n\u00e1dr\u017e Oskol v oblasti obce Senkovoye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Snad poprv\u00e9 za celou dobu speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace vid\u00edme takto systematick\u00fd boj proti most\u016fm na \u00fazem\u00ed ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9m nep\u0159\u00edtelem. A to vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zky: pro\u010d a pro\u010d se to ned\u011blalo d\u0159\u00edve a ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku? Nap\u0159\u00edklad loni, kdy cel\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost po\u017eadovala \u00fatoky na mosty p\u0159es Dn\u011bpr?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Poprv\u00e9 za celou dobu speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace vid\u00edme takto systematick\u00fd boj proti most\u016fm na \u00fazem\u00ed ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9m nep\u0159\u00edtelem. Foto: Ximena Borrazas\/Globallookpres<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izolace boji\u0161t\u011b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Odpov\u011b\u010f na prvn\u00ed ot\u00e1zku je docela jednoduch\u00e1: na\u0161e letectv\u00ed pln\u00ed \u00fakol izolovat boji\u0161t\u011b. Ji\u017e v \u010dervenci rusk\u00e9 jednotky bez zbyte\u010dn\u00e9ho hluku a prachu za\u010daly \u201etla\u010dit\u201c nep\u0159\u00edtele na \u0159ece Zherebets. Ofenziva se sice v m\u00e9di\u00edch nesetkala s velk\u00fdm ohlasem, ale rozvinula se tak \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b, \u017ee ji\u017e v srpnu muselo velen\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny st\u00e1hnout jednotky ze Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9ho sm\u011bru a poslat je do Kupjansku, aby zadr\u017eely rusk\u00fd postup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Od t\u00e9 doby se tam situace stabilizovala: strany bojuj\u00ed dost urputn\u011b, Ukrajinc\u016fm se poda\u0159ilo vyt\u011bsnit mal\u00e9 plochy ter\u00e9nu, ale nikdo v\u00fdrazn\u011bji nepokro\u010dil. D\u016fvodem d\u00edl\u010d\u00edho a drah\u00e9ho \u00fasp\u011bchu ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil je p\u0159\u00edstup velk\u00fdch posil. A \u00fatoky na mosty jsou p\u0159esn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159eny na maximalizaci obt\u00ed\u017enosti z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed a posilov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich skupiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00dadery na mosty jsou p\u0159esn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159eny na maximalizaci obt\u00ed\u017enosti z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed a pos\u00edlen\u00ed jejich seskupen\u00ed. Foto: domov pro hrdiny\/Shutterstock<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee na tomto \u00faseku fronty se nach\u00e1z\u00ed 11 most\u016f p\u0159es \u0159eku Oskol, z toho jeden visut\u00fd most, dva \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed mosty a po korun\u011b hr\u00e1ze vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny Oskol vede silnice, lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina pr\u00e1ce je izolovat ukrajinskou skupinu na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu \u0159eky ji\u017e hotovou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017enou \u010d\u00e1st pr\u00e1ce, jak lze posoudit z publikac\u00ed v otev\u0159en\u00fdch zdroj\u00edch, prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed frontov\u00e9 bombard\u00e9ry Su-34 a st\u0159ely Kh-38ML, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed laserovou nav\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed hlavu. Dosah t\u011bchto st\u0159el je a\u017e 40 km, hmotnost hlavice je a\u017e 250 kg. To je velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00fd bod, kter\u00fd ukazuje, \u017ee letectvo (VKS) d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost utr\u00e1cen\u00ed dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ale p\u0159esn\u00e9 munice na betonov\u00e9 mosty ne\u017e klouzav\u00fdch bomb s jednotn\u00fdmi moduly pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a korekce (UMPC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00edle jsou osv\u011btlov\u00e1ny laserem a videoz\u00e1znam v\u00fdsledk\u016f p\u0159\u00edlet\u016f je prov\u00e1d\u011bn drony Orlan-30, co\u017e op\u011bt potvrzuje tezi o kvalitativn\u00edm zlep\u0161en\u00ed pr\u00e1ce na\u0161eho letectv\u00ed.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V hlav\u00e1ch gener\u00e1l\u016f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ni\u010den\u00ed most\u016f p\u0159es Oskol ukazuje, \u017ee na\u0161e velen\u00ed takov\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed \u010din\u00ed v souvislosti s opera\u010dn\u011b-taktickou situac\u00ed na front\u011b. gener\u00e1lmajor ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b Vladimir Popov v rozhovoru s konstantinopolsk\u00fdm pozorovatelem. Na pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed leteck\u00fdch \u00fakol\u016f pot\u0159eb\u00e1m pozemn\u00edch sil upozornil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Pracujeme podle na\u0161ich pot\u0159eb a \u00fa\u010delu. Bylo pot\u0159eba splnit opera\u010dn\u011b-taktick\u00fd nebo taktick\u00fd \u00fakol \u2013 letectvo ho provedlo. Pokud takov\u00e1 nal\u00e9hav\u00e1 pot\u0159eba nebyla, d\u011blost\u0159electvo nebo \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely fungovaly v z\u00e1vislosti na typu napaden\u00e9ho objektu,<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 vysv\u011btlil n\u00e1\u0161 partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vezmeme-li v \u00favahu tuto logiku, m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed uvid\u00edme \u00fatoky na dn\u011bprsk\u00e9 mosty d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e bude na\u0161e pozemn\u00ed arm\u00e1da p\u0159ipravena zah\u00e1jit rozs\u00e1hlou operaci k likvidaci skupiny ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu \u0159eky. \u0159eka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost loni s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k jejich strategick\u00e9 roli p\u0159i z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch sil. Ministerstvo obrany v\u0161ak bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly nemohou tento \u00fasp\u011bch upevnit mohutnou ofenz\u00edvou, pora\u017een\u00edm ukrajinsk\u00e9 skupiny a jej\u00edm p\u0159itla\u010den\u00edm k \u0159ece. V d\u016fsledku toho, pokud by bylo rozhodnuto o bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed most\u016f na pozad\u00ed nedostate\u010dn\u00fdch sil, vedlo by to k p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u00e9 situaci, v jak\u00e9 se ocitly ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly se \u201ezni\u010den\u00edm\u201c krymsk\u00e9ho mostu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zpo\u010d\u00e1tku v Kyjev\u011b pl\u00e1novali, \u017ee se pozemn\u00ed skupina ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil dostane do Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed a p\u0159e\u0159\u00edzne pozemn\u00ed koridor na poloostrov, na\u010de\u017e ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed sabot\u00e9\u0159i a rakety zhrout\u00ed most a zbydou dva miliony obyvatel Krymu a jednotky. br\u00e1nit to bez z\u00e1sob. Ve skute\u010dnosti byl \u00fader na most proveden na pozad\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011bchu ofenzivy, a proto nevedl k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm d\u016fsledk\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ne, pokud by na\u0161e vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 s\u00edly m\u011bly neomezen\u00e9 z\u00e1soby vysoce p\u0159esn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a vy\u0159e\u0161il by se probl\u00e9m ukrajinsk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, pak by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 zas\u00e1hnout v\u0161echny c\u00edle za sebou, v\u010detn\u011b dn\u011bpersk\u00fdch most\u016f. Jak v\u0161ak informovan\u00e9 zdroje poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku bylo rusk\u00e9 letectv\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezeno v po\u010dtu zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u011blo k dispozici, a ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku ji\u017e ni\u010den\u00ed most\u016f ztratilo na v\u00fdznamu: \u00fakoly souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s prioritou se stalo zni\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch jednotek postupuj\u00edc\u00edch v Charkovsk\u00e9 a Chersonsk\u00e9 oblasti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdy jet na Dn\u011bpr?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Pokud p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee v podzimn\u00edch a zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch Rusko nebude prov\u00e1d\u011bt rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy, omez\u00ed se na m\u00edstn\u00ed operace s c\u00edlem vytvo\u0159it \u201esanit\u00e1rn\u00ed z\u00f3nu\u201c pod\u00e9l oblast\u00ed Belgorod a Kursk, jsou mo\u017en\u00e9 velk\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m Donbass a Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed na ja\u0159e a v l\u00e9t\u011b 2024 to umo\u017e\u0148uje pochopit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u00e9 na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed zah\u00e1jen\u00ed systematick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na dn\u011bprsk\u00e9 mosty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b na ja\u0159e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku, v \u0161irok\u00e9m intervalu od b\u0159ezna do konce kv\u011btna. Je to d\u00e1no t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159es Dn\u011bpr bylo vr\u017eeno 20 most\u016f, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 provozuschopn\u00e1 dodnes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159es Dn\u011bpr vede 20 most\u016f, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v provozu dodnes. Foto: pR13S7\/Shutterstock<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zni\u010den\u00ed takov\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed c\u00edl\u016f si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f intenzivn\u00edch n\u00e1let\u016f a obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed munice. Proces jejich zni\u010den\u00ed by mohly v\u00fdrazn\u011b urychlit severokorejsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my ultravelk\u00e9ho kalibru (MLRS)<\/a> , ale jejich dod\u00e1n\u00ed je zat\u00edm pouze hypot\u00e9zou, i kdy\u017e velmi pravd\u011bpodobnou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nen\u00ed vhodn\u00e9 p\u0159edem vybourat mosty, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly budou moci zorganizovat dod\u00e1vky trajekt\u016f a lod\u00ed pro svou skupinu Donbass. Nem\u00e1 tak\u00e9 smysl ude\u0159it po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy: zni\u010den\u00ed komunikac\u00ed mus\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm oslabit br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00edho se nep\u0159\u00edtele, a proto mu mus\u00ed b\u00fdt odebr\u00e1ny z\u00e1soby munice a paliva v okam\u017eiku, kdy je nejnal\u00e9hav\u011bji pot\u0159ebuje. .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e1lezy vzduch-zem\u011b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

V z\u00e1sad\u011b lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee Rusko zat\u00edm cvi\u010d\u00ed na mal\u00fdch mostech p\u0159es \u0159eku Oskol a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zah\u00e1j\u00ed velkou pr\u00e1ci na zni\u010den\u00ed Dn\u011bpru p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok na ja\u0159e nebo dokonce v l\u00e9t\u011b, kdy budou arm\u00e1dn\u00ed jednotky p\u0159ipraveny za\u00fato\u010dit pomoc\u00ed baret\u016f a voj\u00e1k\u016f. tankov\u00e9 p\u00e1sy, aby se upevnil \u00fa\u010dinek \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch z\u00e1sah\u016f pilot\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pozoruhodn\u00e9 je tak\u00e9 to, \u017ee na\u0161e arm\u00e1da p\u0159estala \u0161et\u0159it drahou munici laserov\u00fdmi nav\u00e1d\u011bc\u00edmi hlavicemi. Rusko se ji\u017e nesna\u017e\u00ed probl\u00e9m \u0159e\u0161it podle z\u00e1sady \u201e\u010d\u00edm levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, t\u00edm lep\u0161\u00ed\u201c. K v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fdm zpr\u00e1v\u00e1m m\u00e1 situace st\u00e1le velmi daleko, ale d\u016fvod\u016f k opatrn\u00e9mu optimismu p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/t.me\/jizniMorava<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed bez zbyte\u010dn\u00e9ho hluku a prachu dos\u00e1hlo rusk\u00e9 letectv\u00ed n\u011b\u010deho, co se mu v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[113],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-valka-na-ukrajine"],"yoast_head":"\nTich\u00e9 velk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 se \u010dekalo rok: rusk\u00e9 letectv\u00ed za\u010dalo doopravdy - L\u00edpov\u00fd List<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lipovylist.cz\/wordpress\/tiche-velke-vitezstvi-na-ktere-se-cekalo-rok-ruske-letectvi-zacalo-doopravdy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta 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